S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX REPORTS ANNUAL HOME PRICE GAIN OF 19.7% IN MAY


Roger Pettingell Sarasota Real Estate

NEW YORK, July 26, 2022 — (PRNewswire) — S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2022 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.7% annual gain in May, down from 20.6% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 19.0%, down from 19.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 20.5% year-over-year gain, down from 21.2% in the previous month.

Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in May. Tampa led the way with a 36.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami with a 34.0% increase, and Dallas with a 30.8% increase. Four of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending May 2022 versus the year ending April 2022. 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.5% month-over-month increase in May, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.3%.

In May, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

ANALYSIS

“Housing data for May 2022 continued strong, as price gains decelerated slightly from very high levels,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose by 19.7% for the 12 months ended May, down from April’s 20.6% year-over-year gain. We see a similar pattern in the 10-City Composite (up 19.0% in May vs. 19.6% in April) and in the 20-City Composite (+20.5% vs. +21.2%). Despite this deceleration, growth rates are still extremely robust, with all three composites at or above the 98th percentile historically.

“The market’s strength continues to be broadly based, as all 20 cities recorded double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in May. May’s gains ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for 19 cities, and in the top decile for 17 of them. However, at the city level we also see evidence of deceleration. Price gains for May exceeded those for April in only four cities. As recently as February of this year, all 20 cities were accelerating.

Tampa (+36.1%) was the fastest growing city for the third consecutive month, with Miami (+34.0%) in second place. In May, Dallas fought its way into the top three with a gain of 30.8%. Prices continued strongest in the South and Southeast, both of which recorded 30.7% gains year-over-year.

“We’ve noted previously that mortgage financing has become more expensive as the Federal Reserve ratchets up interest rates, a process that was ongoing as our May data were gathered. Accordingly, a more-challenging macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer.”

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

 

Index

 

Level

 

Date

 

Level

 

Date

From Peak

(%)

 

Level

From Trough

(%)

From Peak

(%)

National

184.61

Jul-06

133.99

Feb-12

-27.4 %

305.98

128.4 %

65.7 %

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1 %

317.30

136.7 %

53.6 %

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3 %

328.92

124.6 %

45.4 %


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